Posted by
Bullfrog on Sunday, June 17, 2007 1:26:35 PM
An
article in the NY Times predicts that online purchasing will implode. The authors of the article liken it to the "dot-bomb" era of 2001-2002.
SAN FRANCISCO, June 16 — Has online retailing entered the Dot Calm era?
Since the inception of the Web, online commerce has enjoyed
hypergrowth, with annual sales increasing more than 25 percent over
all, and far more rapidly in many categories. But in the last year,
growth has slowed sharply in major sectors like books, tickets and
office supplies.
Growth in online sales has also dropped dramatically in diverse
categories like health and beauty products, computer peripherals and
pet supplies. Analysts say it is a turning point and growth will
continue to slow through the decade.
Guess what, folks? This isn't the implosion of anything. It's merely following a fairly standard growth curve; at some point, a high rate of growth from year to year slows, even if the raw dollar amount of sales does not decrease. Double digit percentage sales increases are simply not sustainable forever; any brand manager at P&G can tell you that. It does not, however, mean that sales are imploding, as implied by the Times.
Still, Internet commerce is growing at a pace that traditional
merchants would envy. But online sales are not growing as fast as they
were even 18 months ago.
This is news? Readership of the NY Times hasn't been growing, either, according to Audit Bureau of Circulations Fas-Fax circulation numbers. In fact, even its
paid Sunday circulation is well under a million, in a city in which the Nielsen Designated Market Area (aka DMA) population tops 10 million. The NY DMA is over 7% of the U.S.,
yet its Sunday readership (click on the link for the NY Times to read its full readership profile in .pdf format), with 3.8 readers-per-copy sold is less than half of the population for the market. Yes, folks, half the "natives" of the NY television market do not read the Gray Lady.
Do I detect a cackle of glee from the Times about an inevitable growth curve hitting the online retail industry? An element of snark, perhaps?
I am hardly a typical consumer. Almost everything I buy that doesn't involve gas for my car or drug store or grocery items, I buy online, and have for over a decade. Do I purchase a morning newspaper to go with my train commute into NYC? Sure I do, but it's not the NY Times.
Long gone are the days when the Times could be counted upon for checking my spelling or grammar. Long gone are the days in which the Times could be counted upon for reporting the news, as opposed to creating it. The Times lost all credibility in my mind twenty-some years ago. Its article today about the fallacious woes of online retail is further proof to me that the Times grasps at straws and twists facts to suit its own agenda.